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Work package 7: Geo-statistical and scenario modelling of crop, shrubs, livestock systems

Work package 7 will be the nexus for all spatially resolved data included in the landscape-scale analysis. Work package 7 will connect socio-ecological knowledge from work package 2 with state-of-the-art remote sensing data, climate change observations and projections.

Based on this information and measured data from work package 4 and work package 6, representative scenarios of integrated crop, shrubs, livestock integrated systems will be modelled for contrasting agro-ecological zones.

To this end we use the Land Use Change Impact Assessment tool LUCIA (

Impacts on system productivity, ecosystem functions and services, scaling potential and system resilience will be assessed. Scenarios will be developed, and model outputs validated by stakeholders in an iterative multi-step procedure with work package 2. Stakeholder scenarios will be modelled at the respective sites for long-term assessment regarding climate change resilience, productivity and environmental impacts.

Further, scenarios will be applied across sites to test scaling potentials. Quantify the effects of systematic integration on soil biological, chemical and physical functioning, as well as on water availability and soil fertility and productivity.

More information


  • Dr. Abdoul Aziz Diouf: CSE, Work package 7 leader
  • Dr. Carsten Marohn: UNI KASSEL, Work package 7 co-leader